Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?
Probability
13¢
1h
+0.4pp
24h
+3.0pp
24h Vol
$551.29
Liquidity
$1.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
-10.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 08:42SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.2pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.6pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.6pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.2pp
to 11¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time." If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2025
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
Top Holders
20 wallets- 0xa5ef…296612.7K
- Frozen-Ideal127
- 0x1db8…1d65105
- 0xec97…4f7298
- 0x3444…a75697