Muted-Boatyard
0x419f32f30814030554f5df3e9f508ad7394ce853
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$6.81
Total PnL
$-717.71
Realised
$93.47
Win rate
57%
51 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Mohamed Salah play in Egyptian Premier League next?
320 shares @ 0.1¢·now 1.1¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$3.36
$3.04
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
625 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.94
$-1.06
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
583 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.88
$-2.12
- YES
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
909 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.45
$-1.62
- YES
Will Gianluigi Buffon be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?
369 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.18
$-0.81
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.17
$-0.83
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.17
$-0.83
- YES
Will Mohamed Salah play in Eredivisie next?
320 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$0.16
$-0.16
- YES
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
7345 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-7.34
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Draymond Green play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?$0.32Jul 28, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 31?$2.00Jul 28, 15:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on August 1?$1.14Jul 28, 15:20 UTC
- TRADESELLNBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?$1.03Jul 28, 15:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$1.77Jul 28, 15:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?$0.58Jul 28, 14:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 30?$0.93Jul 28, 14:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 29?$1.05Jul 28, 14:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mohamed Salah play in Saudi Pro League next?$3.59Jul 28, 14:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mohamed Salah join Fenerbahce?$10.49Jul 28, 14:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 30?$1.95Jul 28, 14:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 31?$1.80Jul 28, 14:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 31?$4.20Jul 28, 14:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 31?$2.37Jul 28, 14:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 1?$4.59Jul 28, 14:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 28?$1.47Jul 28, 13:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 28?$0.00Jul 28, 05:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 28?$0.02Jul 28, 04:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 28?$0.01Jul 28, 04:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 28?$0.02Jul 28, 04:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
71/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
57% win rate over 51 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
51 closed markets, 57% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.44
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 19:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 51 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.