0x41c1438511fc0e398f4e510a68f5c3a40fadcbeb
0x41c1438511fc0e398f4e510a68f5c3a40fadcbeb
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
4
Open notional
$179.70
Total PnL
$42.45
Realised
$-1.25
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?
90 shares @ 73.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$90.41
$24.41
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
89 shares @ 56.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$89.29
$39.29
- YES
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match?
38 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World Cup Match?
31 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$66.33Jun 25, 13:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$50.25Jun 25, 13:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the announcers say "What a Save" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World Cup Match?$10.32Jun 25, 13:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match?$10.35Jun 25, 13:05 UTC
- TRADESELLPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?$37.83Jun 25, 09:14 UTC
- TRADESELLIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?$69.09Jun 25, 09:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Neymar play in the World Cup?$49.16Jun 25, 09:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Neymar play in the World Cup?$35.86May 28, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?$50.25May 28, 13:43 UTC
- REDEEMTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?$50.20May 28, 13:32 UTC
- REDEEMIran leadership change by April 30?$36.85May 28, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?$39.80Apr 19, 07:30 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?$0.00Apr 19, 07:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$40.35Apr 19, 07:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?$28.85Mar 29, 12:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$19.90Mar 27, 12:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?$19.90Mar 26, 01:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by April 30?$29.85Mar 26, 01:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
13 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 65/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 13
- Avg trade size
- $36.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 26, 01:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 25, 13:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.