Iran leadership change by April 30?

1. 1

   Down 3pp over 24h

   Now 2¢; -0.2pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Heavy volume on this book — 2.7× turnover

   $281.6k traded against $104.1k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

3. 3

   Momentum signal firing

   Probability moved down 3.1pp in 24h with 2.7× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

4. 4

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 107h with open resolution ambiguity.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.