Assured-Sorrow
0x41e77d6ad0b7ebd3ac5f4a4ff31b3f372d8c4668
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$64.38
Total PnL
$-62.01
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- YES
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?
3147 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.88
$8.88
- ANTHROPIC
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
25 shares @ 80.8¢·now 75.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$18.69
$-1.31
- YES
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
34 shares @ 29.0¢·now 27.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.31
$-0.69
- YES
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?
10 shares @ 74.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$7.25
$-0.15
- OPENAI
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
20 shares @ 30.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$4.90
$-1.10
- YES
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
50 shares @ 14.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$4.25
$-2.75
- NO
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026?
67 shares @ 15.0¢·now 1.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.10
$-8.90
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
3494 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking be the best AI model on May 1, 2026?
291 shares @ 8.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by April 30?
262 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Austria win on 2026-06-17?$7.46Jun 11, 14:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?$7.00Jun 9, 07:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?$6.17Jun 9, 07:43 UTC
- TRADESELLPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?$16.85Jun 9, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?$20.15Jun 2, 07:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?$10.00Jun 1, 11:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?$10.00Jun 1, 11:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026?$10.00Jun 1, 11:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?$1.00May 5, 12:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?$0.33Apr 30, 15:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Keir Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$0.00Apr 29, 15:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Keir Starmer say "Europe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$0.00Apr 29, 15:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Keir Starmer say "Europe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$4.06Apr 28, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Keir Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$10.23Apr 28, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill claude-opus-4-7-thinking be the best AI model on May 1, 2026?$25.91Apr 28, 14:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?$13.12Apr 28, 14:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill gas hit (High) $4.50 by April 30?$10.48Apr 28, 14:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?$10.00Apr 28, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?$10.00Apr 28, 14:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$10.50Apr 28, 14:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 18
- Avg trade size
- $10.18
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 28, 14:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 11, 14:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.