Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by April 30?
Probability
3¢
1h
-0.4pp
24h
+0.9pp
24h Vol
$3.0K
Liquidity
$11.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.2pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 114.8h
- 05:11SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 115h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.1pp
to 6¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.2pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.7pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.9pp
to 2¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.7pp
to 2¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 2¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.2pp
to 2¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 2¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.6pp
to 2¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.7pp
to 2¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 2¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.6pp
to 2¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.3pp
to 2¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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