Rough-Reboot
0x41eb3f19fd3ce8ec48b74e90b6920b19605d39db
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$24.93
Total PnL
$-10.45
Realised
$-5.37
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Iran Nuke before 2027?
66 shares @ 6.3¢·now 6.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.17
$0.01
- YES
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?
62 shares @ 6.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.06
$0.31
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
96 shares @ 3.5¢·now 3.4¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$3.23
$-0.13
- YES
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
462 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.01
$-0.14
- YES
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?
78 shares @ 3.5¢·now 3.6¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$2.80
$0.05
- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
37 shares @ 8.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.77
$-0.18
- YES
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
86 shares @ 3.3¢·now 3.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.76
$-0.04
- YES
Israeli forces enter Choukine by July 31?
20 shares @ 8.0¢·now 6.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.23
$-0.41
- YES
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?
31 shares @ 6.7¢·now 2.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.91
$-1.15
- YES
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in July 2026?
337 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.39
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.37Jul 5, 11:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$2.98Jul 5, 11:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran Nuke before 2027?$1.88Jul 5, 11:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran Nuke before 2027?$0.34Jul 5, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran Nuke before 2027?$0.34Jul 5, 10:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran Nuke before 2027?$0.39Jul 5, 10:19 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?$0.26Jul 5, 10:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?$5.81Jul 5, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran Nuke before 2027?$0.34Jul 5, 08:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?$1.65Jul 5, 08:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?$0.49Jul 5, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?$2.48Jul 5, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?$2.95Jul 5, 08:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?$6.60Jul 5, 08:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?$0.87Jul 5, 07:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?$2.99Jul 5, 07:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?$2.99Jul 5, 07:22 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?$1.80Jul 5, 07:15 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$2.99Jul 5, 07:04 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.21Jul 5, 06:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.76
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 05:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 11:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.