Thorny-Cicada
0x423e00638ce12cf1ba62a10490c3ee7bdffea3a6
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
17
Open notional
$80.45
Total PnL
$-65.63
Realised
$-0.74
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
207 shares @ 14.4¢·now 16.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$33.03
$3.21
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
30 shares @ 67.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.45
$0.45
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 16?
20 shares @ 95.0¢·now 84.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$16.82
$-2.20
- YES
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
7 shares @ 75.2¢·now 88.4¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$5.88
$0.88
- YES
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
5 shares @ 92.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.27
$-0.73
- YES
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?
11 shares @ 91.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.01
$-9.99
- NO
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
13 shares @ 76.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
6 shares @ 64.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-3.84
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET
6 shares @ 81.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-4.86
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET
6 shares @ 70.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-4.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 16?$9.52Jun 15, 06:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 16?$9.52Jun 15, 06:03 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?$10.98Jun 15, 00:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?$12.66Jun 15, 00:22 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 15, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$6.00Jun 14, 01:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$5.27Jun 14, 01:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win on 2026-06-15?$10.03Jun 14, 01:21 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$6.00Jun 14, 01:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$30.84Jun 14, 01:19 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET$0.00Jun 14, 01:18 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET$0.00Jun 14, 01:18 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$0.00Jun 14, 01:18 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET$0.00Jun 14, 01:18 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET$0.00Jun 14, 01:18 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET$0.00Jun 14, 01:18 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$0.00Jun 14, 01:18 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$0.00Jun 14, 01:18 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$0.00Jun 14, 01:18 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET$0.00Jun 14, 01:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $6.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 14, 00:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 15, 06:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.