BusinessMulti-outcomeExpires Dec 31, 2026

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Probability

73¢

+0.5pp

24h

+1.0pp

24h Vol

$3.3K

Liquidity

$70.8K

Probability (last 7 days)

+2.0pp 7d

Apr 18, 2026, 16:00Apr 25, 2026, 15:54

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors

1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 73¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 5984.1h
LOW
15:55Signal
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.
LOW
15:00Price
Probability up 3.5pp
to 73¢
MEDIUM
13:00Price
Probability up 6.0pp
to 75¢
MEDIUM
12:00Price
Probability up 6.0pp
to 75¢
MEDIUM
10:00Price
Probability up 6.5pp
to 75¢
MEDIUM
09:00Price
Probability up 5.5pp
to 74¢
MEDIUM
08:00Price
Probability up 5.5pp
to 74¢
MEDIUM
06:00Price
Probability up 5.5pp
to 77¢
MEDIUM
05:00Price
Probability up 5.5pp
to 77¢
MEDIUM
03:00Price
Probability up 6.0pp
to 77¢
MEDIUM
21:00Price
Probability up 5.0pp
to 74¢
MEDIUM
17:00Price
Probability up 4.0pp
to 72¢
MEDIUM
16:00Price
Probability up 4.0pp
to 72¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 4.5pp
to 71¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 4.0pp
to 71¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 4.0pp
to 71¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 4.0pp
to 71¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 3.0pp
to 73¢
MEDIUM
3d agoPrice
Probability down -3.5pp
to 68¢
MEDIUM
4d agoPrice
Probability down -3.5pp
to 68¢
MEDIUM
4d agoPrice
Probability down -4.5pp
to 67¢
MEDIUM
4d agoPrice
Probability down -4.5pp
to 67¢
MEDIUM
4d agoPrice
Probability down -4.5pp
to 67¢
MEDIUM
4d agoPrice
Probability down -4.5pp
to 67¢
MEDIUM
4d agoPrice
Probability down -4.5pp
to 67¢
MEDIUM

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventLargest Company end of December 2026?

Market Description

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Dec 31, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket