Cuddly-Heating
0x428f4a1cc3aa91e7d2bfc631acf50f674d215d1b
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
14
Open notional
$481.83
Total PnL
$-188.20
Realised
$-27.03
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
300 shares @ 65.0¢·now 55.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$165.00
$-30.00
- NO
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
798 shares @ 18.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$91.73
$-51.85
- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
300 shares @ 33.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$85.47
$-13.53
- NO
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
136 shares @ 20.6¢·now 20.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.78
$-0.29
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?
69 shares @ 41.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$19.71
$-8.66
- YES
Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 11m?
60 shares @ 71.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$17.09
$-25.51
- YES
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?
151 shares @ 24.0¢·now 11.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$16.55
$-19.56
- NO
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by September 30?
36 shares @ 53.0¢·now 44.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$15.77
$-3.23
- NO
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?
33 shares @ 49.0¢·now 36.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$11.94
$-4.09
- NO
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
67 shares @ 14.0¢·now 14.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$9.41
$0.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$28.09Jun 25, 15:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$195.19Jun 25, 15:05 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$110.17Jun 25, 14:56 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$3.46Jun 25, 14:39 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$49.26Jun 25, 14:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$99.10Jun 25, 14:38 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$43.49Jun 25, 14:38 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.13Jun 25, 14:37 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$2.69Jun 25, 14:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 25?$151.00Jun 25, 14:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?$29.06Jun 25, 14:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 25?$504.00Jun 25, 13:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 25?$149.74Jun 25, 13:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 25?$149.74Jun 25, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 25?$350.06Jun 25, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$122.52Jun 25, 13:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?$22.38Jun 25, 13:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?$3.20Jun 25, 13:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?$4.25Jun 25, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$108.11Jun 25, 13:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $56.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 25, 10:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 25, 15:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.