Silver-Laptop
0x434612ae5894cf43ef23b6ae6211838c7a1d2241
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
8
Open notional
$378.47
Total PnL
$-19.06
Realised
$-74.04
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
- ANTHROPIC
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
285 shares @ 64.5¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$257.93
$74.11
- NO
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?
65 shares @ 94.7¢·now 98.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$64.09
$2.55
- YES
Will pump.fun buybacks hit $500M by December 31?
146 shares @ 50.0¢·now 35.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$51.10
$-21.90
- NO
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?
4 shares @ 93.2¢·now 99.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$3.99
$0.27
- NO
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
1 shares @ 97.2¢·now 99.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.99
$0.02
- YES
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
1 shares @ 32.0¢·now 36.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.36
$0.04
- YES
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?
4 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.01
$-0.04
- YES
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
1 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-0.07
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?$0.00Jun 17, 21:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$0.00Jun 17, 21:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Pepper win the Defi App trading competition?$0.00Jun 17, 21:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill GNX (Kendrick Lamar) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?$0.00Jun 17, 21:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?$0.00Jun 17, 21:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US next strike Iran on February 18, 2026 (ET)?$0.00Jun 17, 21:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill The Testament of Ann Lee be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Jun 17, 21:56 UTC
- REDEEMZama FDV above $800M one day after launch?$0.00Jun 17, 21:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?$1.00Jun 17, 21:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill 'Lilo & Stitch' have the third best domestic opening weekend in 2025?$0.00Jun 17, 21:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?$0.00Jun 17, 21:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?$2.00Jun 17, 21:56 UTC
- REDEEMRussia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?$4.00Jun 17, 21:56 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Syria security agreement by December 31?$0.00Jun 17, 21:56 UTC
- REDEEMUS national XRP reserve in 2025?$0.00Jun 17, 21:56 UTC
- REDEEMUkraine strike in Russia on 29 November 2025?$0.00Jun 17, 21:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy in 2025?$0.00Jun 17, 21:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill 6 judges rule in favor of Trump's Tarriffs?$0.00Jun 17, 21:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025?$0.00Jun 17, 21:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Little Amélie or the Character of Rain be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Jun 17, 21:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 17, 21:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 17, 21:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.