Will pump.fun buybacks hit $500M by December 31?
Probability
85¢
1h
+2.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6028.0h
- 01:00SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6028h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 81¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 84¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 82¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 85¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 85¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 85¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 81¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 87¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 86¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 81¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total Pump.fun buybacks are equal to or greater than $500M by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The primary resolution source for this market will be the buyback tracker available at https://fees.pump.fun/, specifically “Total $PUMP Purchases (USD)”.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (12.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).