Mad-Mycoplasma
0x437b8df29d183fe384601c61a42202fef7a10f0b
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$491.68
Total PnL
$-92.69
Realised
$-3.91
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in July?
167 shares @ 89.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$148.90
$-0.01
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
113 shares @ 90.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$101.18
$-0.57
- NO
Will Vučić officially leave office by July 17?
46 shares @ 82.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$38.43
$0.69
- NO
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches?
44 shares @ 86.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$37.51
$-0.22
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
51 shares @ 74.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$36.57
$-1.28
- YES
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?
51 shares @ 74.0¢·now 71.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$36.07
$-1.52
- YES
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
48 shares @ 78.0¢·now 67.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$32.37
$-5.32
- YES
Will White House post 200+ posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?
31 shares @ 86.0¢·now 98.2¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$30.40
$3.78
- NO
Will Caley McDonald win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election?
24 shares @ 74.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$17.89
$0.12
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
13 shares @ 84.0¢·now 96.7¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$12.36
$1.62
Recent activity
- REWARD$1.66Jul 5, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?$51.67Jul 4, 22:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?$24.97Jul 4, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?$24.79Jul 4, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYTamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?$37.58Jul 4, 21:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$37.84Jul 4, 19:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill White House post 200+ posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$53.02Jul 4, 13:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump attend 2 World Cup matches?$37.73Jul 4, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vučić officially leave office by July 17?$37.74Jul 4, 13:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Caley McDonald win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election?$17.77Jul 4, 12:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$37.69Jul 4, 12:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill White House post 200+ posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$4.50Jul 4, 10:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill White House post 200+ posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$8.19Jul 4, 09:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill White House post 200+ posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$11.70Jul 4, 09:17 UTC
- TRADESELLTamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?$3.66Jul 4, 07:39 UTC
- TRADESELLTamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?$29.93Jul 4, 07:36 UTC
- TRADESELLTamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?$20.43Jul 4, 06:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June?$129.13Jul 4, 06:07 UTC
- REWARD$1.89Jul 4, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump speak to Keir Starmer in July?$54.57Jul 3, 20:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $65.59
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 28, 19:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.