Threadbare-Chops
0x43cfb584c8bfa7f322ea258e251bd656b30788fa
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
86
Open notional
$3.4K
Total PnL
$-17.0K
Realised
$721.66
Win rate
67%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 86- NO
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
1372 shares @ 80.6¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.2K
$135.21
- NO
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?
1231 shares @ 78.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$917.10
$-43.09
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?
1231 shares @ 28.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$313.87
$-30.77
- YES
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship?
20000 shares @ 1.3¢·now 1.1¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$230.00
$-30.00
- NO
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?
256 shares @ 59.0¢·now 66.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$168.96
$17.92
- YES
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?
445 shares @ 28.3¢·now 34.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$151.34
$25.40
- NO
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
157 shares @ 78.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$148.02
$25.91
- NO
Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31?
50 shares @ 79.0¢·now 91.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$45.50
$6.00
- NO
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?
47 shares @ 50.8¢·now 83.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$38.96
$15.10
- NO
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
35 shares @ 76.0¢·now 92.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$32.62
$5.89
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?$1.99Jul 28, 22:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?$0.01Jul 28, 22:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?$0.04Jul 28, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?$0.01Jul 28, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?$0.08Jul 28, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?$0.40Jul 28, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?$0.04Jul 28, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?$0.04Jul 28, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?$0.07Jul 28, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft say "Copilot" 20+ times during earnings call?$2.50Jul 28, 14:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$982.09Jul 28, 13:07 UTC
- MERGEWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$1.0KJul 28, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$690.00Jul 28, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$132.03Jul 28, 04:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$62.97Jul 28, 04:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$54.03Jul 28, 04:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$19.50Jul 28, 01:50 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.99Jul 28, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$152.10Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$14.28Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $282.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 15, 00:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 22:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.