SportsExpires Dec 31, 2026
Creator

UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

Probability

20¢

1h

-3.0pp

24h

-7.0pp

24h Vol

$67.1K

Liquidity

$17.7K

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 28, 2026, 18:00May 1, 2026, 17:23
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 7pp over 24h

    Now 20¢; -3.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 3.8× turnover

    $67.1k traded against $17.7k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $17.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 25¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5838.6h

    LOW

Price movement

-7.0pp over the last 24h, now 20¢.

Biggest hourly move: +36.0pp at 15:00 (to 43¢).

Show 8 hourly moves
  • 17:00 · +16.0pp → 23¢
  • 15:00 · +36.0pp → 43¢
  • 14:00 · +10.0pp → 18¢
  • 12:00 · +9.0pp → 17¢
  • 11:00 · +8.0pp → 17¢
  • 09:00 · +10.0pp → 17¢
  • 08:00 · +17.0pp → 23¢
  • 06:00 · +7.5pp → 26¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

1
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the United Arab Emirates (UAE) or Qatar formally announces that they have suspended diplomatic relations with the other by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from either respective government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
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