Frightening-Rainmaker
0x43fdf2f78aee5d5248fb10149f2d2d9a966759d3
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$2.1K
Total PnL
$-466.78
Realised
$-116.63
Win rate
46%
41 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
80 shares @ 98.7¢·now 99.1¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$79.24
$0.28
- NO
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLAU?
80 shares @ 98.4¢·now 96.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$77.36
$-1.36
- YES
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
80 shares @ 95.4¢·now 95.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$76.04
$-0.28
- YES
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?
80 shares @ 93.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$73.60
$-0.80
- NO
Will Jonathan Byrd finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship?
80 shares @ 91.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$69.20
$-3.60
- NO
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
75 shares @ 86.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$64.13
$-0.38
- NO
Will Marcelo Queiroga win the Governor of Paraíba election?
56 shares @ 97.5¢·now 97.3¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$54.85
$-0.11
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?
55 shares @ 97.9¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$53.87
$0.03
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
66 shares @ 80.0¢·now 79.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$52.73
$-0.07
- NO
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?
60 shares @ 84.6¢·now 85.9¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$51.54
$0.78
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$52.80Jul 14, 12:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$64.50Jul 14, 12:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$7.64Jul 14, 12:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July?$1.00Jul 14, 12:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$15.00Jul 14, 12:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in June?$12.87Jul 14, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in June?$10.40Jul 14, 12:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the third-place match be ESP vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$16.30Jul 14, 12:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?$74.40Jul 14, 12:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$43.75Jul 14, 11:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on July 15?$12.20Jul 14, 11:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?$13.05Jul 14, 11:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on July 15?$13.42Jul 14, 11:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on July 15?$13.42Jul 14, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on July 15?$12.00Jul 14, 10:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$1.84Jul 14, 10:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 15?$16.06Jul 14, 10:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on July 14?$0.08Jul 14, 10:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?$11.50Jul 14, 10:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July?$16.50Jul 14, 09:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
46% win rate over 41 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
41 closed markets, 46% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $20.52
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 05:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 12:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 41 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.