Chilly-Wear
0x44143c9497f5c34b72bac7741b0aaea6b488c9ff
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
153
Open notional
$96.29
Total PnL
$-3.0K
Realised
$-179.53
Win rate
24%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 153- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
4280 shares @ 3.2¢·now 2.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$96.29
$-41.88
- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
31907 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-281.84
- YES
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
20039 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-114.02
- NO
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
16987 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-63.70
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
11875 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-49.07
- YES
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?
7858 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-156.64
- YES
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
1671 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-40.97
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?
1238 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-3.71
- YES
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-03-08?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$11.10Jul 13, 23:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$9.99Jul 13, 21:56 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$19.95Jul 13, 21:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$6.88Jul 13, 19:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$12.00Jul 13, 19:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$9.30Jul 13, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$28.24Jul 13, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$10.16Jul 13, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$2.07Jul 13, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$1.06Jul 13, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$0.17Jul 13, 18:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$2.51Jul 13, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$0.19Jul 13, 17:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$0.01Jul 13, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$0.01Jul 13, 17:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$0.18Jul 13, 17:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$0.71Jul 13, 17:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$8.44Jul 13, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$3.34Jul 13, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$0.19Jul 13, 16:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
24% win rate over 21 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $7.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 21:47 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 23:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.