Insecure-Guerrilla
0x4442d902ac5a53977a159e688df02cb765baca21
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$68.38
Total PnL
$-71.89
Realised
$-2.11
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
133 shares @ 52.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$67.38
$-2.00
- YES
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?
15 shares @ 26.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$1.00
$-3.00
- NO
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7?
2500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
176 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
32 shares @ 62.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
US x Iran meeting by March 15, 2026?
31 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Morocco win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025?
28 shares @ 63.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-17.90
- YES
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15?
13 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.93
- YES
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31?
10 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07?
9 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-2.94
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?$20.00Apr 21, 20:35 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?$18.03Apr 21, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?$20.00Apr 21, 20:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15?$3.00Apr 15, 19:43 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire by May 31?$16.39Apr 8, 12:40 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire by April 30?$0.00Apr 8, 08:16 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire by April 30?$0.00Apr 8, 08:16 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire by April 30?$25.59Apr 8, 08:16 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran ceasefire by April 7?$60.87Apr 7, 23:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by April 7?$3.56Apr 7, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07?$3.00Apr 7, 19:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by April 7?$1.00Apr 6, 21:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?$7.56Apr 6, 21:47 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?$0.00Apr 6, 21:44 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?$0.00Apr 6, 21:44 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET$0.00Mar 18, 11:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET$11.68Mar 18, 02:04 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$0.00Mar 18, 01:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$5.00Mar 18, 01:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$5.00Mar 18, 01:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $12.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 3, 20:53 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 21, 20:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.