Popular-Essay
0x44c05a9f60477039541645ada62806dd0b4c8ae7
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
33
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-67.40
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 33- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 7?
217 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.30
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on February 1?
199 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-3.19
- YES
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $62.50 Week of April 13 2026?
178 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.25
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 1?
172 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.21
- UP
XRP Up or Down - March 30, 1PM ET
137 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.43
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 17?
135 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.35
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on January 23?
131 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-5.10
- NO
Will Trump say "Kamala" or "Harris" this week? (March 8)
120 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-2.16
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 46°F or higher on March 3?
84 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-3.36
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 9?
81 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.79
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 21?$180.65Jul 21, 16:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 21?$177.94Jul 20, 18:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 7?$1.39Jul 6, 21:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on July 3?$159.22Jul 3, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on July 3?$156.83Jul 2, 20:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 17?$173.62May 17, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 17?$171.71May 16, 18:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 8?$186.00May 8, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 9?$1.91May 8, 17:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 8?$184.14May 7, 18:54 UTC
- REDEEMBNB Up or Down - March 28, 6AM ET$28.59May 7, 18:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 20?$0.00May 1, 15:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $90 on April 26?$1.41Apr 25, 21:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $345 Week of April 13 2026?$144.44Apr 20, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $62.50 Week of April 13 2026?$1.30Apr 17, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $345 Week of April 13 2026?$143.14Apr 16, 20:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seattle be 64°F or higher on March 2?$0.00Apr 13, 14:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 31?$150.27Apr 6, 04:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 1?$1.30Apr 1, 01:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 2?$0.00Mar 31, 21:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $44.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 1, 15:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 16:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.