Grizzled-Clavier
0x44f3f4ff2372f779135b8b83cb26ad82759c975c
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
172
Open notional
$60.52
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$1.5K
Win rate
35%
105 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 172- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
35 shares @ 55.1¢·now 63.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$22.23
$2.93
- NO
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
30 shares @ 47.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Oct 24, 2027$14.56
$0.43
- NO
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
87 shares @ 20.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$10.88
$-6.51
- YES
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
735 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$5.51
$-1.84
- YES
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
200 shares @ 3.1¢·now 1.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.30
$-2.86
- NO
Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
2 shares @ 96.9¢·now 98.7¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$2.01
$0.03
- YES
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.72
$-0.28
- YES
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
140 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.49
$-0.63
- YES
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
110 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.39
$-0.71
- YES
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
115 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.29
$-0.75
Recent activity
- REDEEMRecoleta FC leading at halftime?$90.99Aug 19, 01:54 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Recoleta FC (-1.5)$4.99Aug 19, 01:52 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 19, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYRecoleta FC leading at halftime?$24.98Aug 18, 22:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYRecoleta FC leading at halftime?$9.98Aug 18, 22:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYRecoleta FC leading at halftime?$13.97Aug 18, 22:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYRecoleta FC leading at halftime?$9.98Aug 18, 22:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYRecoleta FC leading at halftime?$23.94Aug 18, 22:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYRecoleta FC leading at halftime?$7.98Aug 18, 22:42 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 17, 00:15 UTC
- REDEEMCA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 5.5$10.00Aug 16, 23:16 UTC
- REDEEMCA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 4.5$15.00Aug 16, 23:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Recoleta FC (-1.5)$4.70Aug 16, 22:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYCA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 4.5$14.99Aug 16, 22:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYCA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 5.5$9.99Aug 16, 22:48 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Any Other Score?$5.00Aug 16, 02:25 UTC
- REDEEMCA Platense vs. CA Boca Juniors: CA Platense 1st Half O/U 1.5$5.00Aug 16, 02:25 UTC
- REDEEMCA Platense vs. CA Boca Juniors: CA Boca Juniors O/U 2.5$3.55Aug 16, 02:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-08-15?$0.18Aug 16, 02:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
35% win rate over 105 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
105 closed markets, 35% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $8.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 15, 21:18 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 01:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 105 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.