Confused-Methane
0x45036fe0657752a7e4d0bc1c8ddbad4cc957e250
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
7
Open notional
$5.79
Total PnL
$-4.48
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?
2 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.08
$0.00
- NO
Kristi Noem out as Secretary of Homeland Security by December 31?
2 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2025$1.61
$0.00
- NO
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?
1 shares @ 99.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.05
$0.01
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.04
$0.00
- NO
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season?
6 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 29, 2024$0.00
$-2.10
- NO
Will more people travel on Thanksgiving than last year?
2 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 27, 2025$0.00
$-1.34
- JACKSONVILLE STATE
Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State
2 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2025$0.00
$-1.06
Recent activity
- REDEEMIran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?$1.14Jul 14, 03:06 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?$1.06Jul 11, 06:03 UTC
- REDEEMIran successfully targets shipping on July 6?$1.22Jul 10, 13:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?$1.06Jul 10, 07:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?$1.06Jul 10, 07:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping on July 6?$1.20Jul 5, 07:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$1.14Jun 30, 22:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?$1.15Jun 30, 18:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?$1.09Jun 30, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?$1.08Jun 29, 00:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?$1.15Jun 29, 00:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$1.14Jun 29, 00:50 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?$1.07Jun 23, 15:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?$1.27Jun 19, 04:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?$1.07Jun 13, 07:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?$1.25Jun 13, 07:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?$1.04Apr 30, 01:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$1.04Apr 28, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?$1.03Mar 28, 09:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?$1.05Mar 28, 09:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $5.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 4, 09:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 03:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.