Fearful-Socialist
0x4526ab9f8b42770c647ba8ba8a3c5ca125462d4b
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$5.39
Total PnL
$-804.42
Realised
$107.68
Win rate
100%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
180 shares @ 7.7¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.90
$-12.95
- YES
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
180 shares @ 7.7¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.90
$-12.95
- YES
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
180 shares @ 7.7¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.81
$-13.04
- YES
Will Green Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
275 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2026$0.55
$-7.78
- YES
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
180 shares @ 7.7¢·now 0.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.45
$-13.40
- YES
Will Andrew Zylberfink be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?
145 shares @ 6.7¢·now 0.3¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$0.36
$-9.30
- YES
Will Te Pāti Māori win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
45 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2026$0.34
$-1.03
- YES
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
180 shares @ 7.7¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.27
$-13.58
- YES
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
180 shares @ 7.7¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.27
$-13.58
- YES
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
180 shares @ 7.7¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.27
$-13.58
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Enio Verri win the Governor of Paraná election?$0.07Jul 21, 19:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Beto Richa win the Governor of Paraná election?$0.40Jul 21, 19:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation be 4.4% in June?$20.00Jul 14, 14:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$8.07Jul 10, 23:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Delta Q2 passenger load factor be at least 87%?$5.00Jul 10, 12:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 52 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?$1.10Jul 10, 03:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 51 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?$0.20Jul 10, 03:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 50 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?$0.20Jul 10, 03:39 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$1.79Jul 9, 21:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?$10.45Jul 9, 03:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?$7.15Jul 9, 02:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Guto Silva win the Governor of Paraná election?$0.07Jul 9, 02:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?$20.00Jul 4, 17:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?$5.02Jul 3, 11:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?$5.03Jul 2, 22:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Seoul have less than 100mm of precipitation in June?$18.66Jul 2, 13:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Seoul have between 120-130mm of precipitation in June?$31.34Jul 2, 11:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hong Kong have 500mm or more of precipitation in June?$6.00Jul 2, 05:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in June?$7.00Jul 1, 16:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of UDMR?$0.24Jun 23, 08:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
22 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $3.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 13, 04:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 19:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.