SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Jan 1, 2027
Creator

Will 51 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?

Probability

11¢

1h

-2.0pp

24h

-35.0pp

24h Vol

$125.90

Liquidity

$422.20

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jan 1, 2027
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
nato
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-30.6pp 7d
1007550250
11¢
Jul 16, 2026, 18:00 UTCJul 23, 2026, 17:31 UTC
updated 17:31:40 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-07-23T17-31Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 35pp over 24h

    Now 11¢; -2.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $422 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 16¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

liquidity sensitive
Trust transition

Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: nato

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will 51 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will 51 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jan 1, 04:59 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 3875.5h

    LOW

Price movement

-35.0pp over the last 24h, now 11¢.

Biggest hourly move: -33.3pp at Jul 20, 20:00 UTC (to 11¢).

Show top 8 of 64 hourly moves
  • Jul 21, 09:00 UTC · -30.8pp → 11¢
  • Jul 21, 07:00 UTC · -30.3pp → 11¢
  • Jul 21, 00:00 UTC · -33.1pp → 11¢
  • Jul 20, 23:00 UTC · -33.0pp → 11¢
  • Jul 20, 22:00 UTC · -32.9pp → 11¢
  • Jul 20, 20:00 UTC · -33.3pp → 11¢
  • Jul 20, 19:00 UTC · -33.1pp → 11¢
  • Jul 20, 17:00 UTC · -33.0pp → 12¢
updated 17:31:40 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 17:31:40 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventHow many senators will vote for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Todd Blanche to be United States Attorney General by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions. If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market. No attempts by a legislator to change their vote after the vote has been closed shall be considered for this market. The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

senators

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "senators" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will 51 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?"?

As of Thu, 23 Jul 2026 17:31:40 GMT, YES is priced at 11% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -35.0pp in the last 24 hours, -2.0pp in the last hour, and -30.6pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jan 1, 2027 (2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$125.90 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $659.04. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $422.20. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

13 wallets
Open on Polymarket