0x4550062a079e5ad218cf4a372b928a5dce902398
0x4550062a079e5ad218cf4a372b928a5dce902398
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$42.79
Total PnL
$-1.0K
Realised
$-3.08
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?
356 shares @ 17.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$19.57
$-41.03
- YES
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
1850 shares @ 24.9¢·now 0.6¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$11.10
$-448.89
- YES
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
1874 shares @ 13.8¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$6.56
$-252.72
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
13 shares @ 15.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.13
$1.13
- YES
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
469 shares @ 33.4¢·now 0.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$2.34
$-154.29
- YES
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
44 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.07
$-1.93
- YES
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?
11 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.02
$-0.98
- YES
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?
1142 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-125.64
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
4 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$1.31Jul 12, 16:55 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$1.31Jul 12, 16:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?$20.70Jul 9, 16:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?$0.00Jul 9, 16:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?$20.69Jul 9, 16:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$107.88Jul 5, 16:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$36.20Jul 5, 16:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?$40.20Jul 5, 16:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$151.39Jul 5, 16:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?$0.00Jul 5, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$31.81Jul 5, 16:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?$31.80Jul 5, 16:29 UTC
- REDEEMMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?$0.00Jul 5, 16:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?$0.00Jul 5, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$62.68Jul 5, 16:27 UTC
- REDEEMIran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?$31.31Jul 5, 16:26 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$8.60Jul 5, 16:26 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$22.77Jul 5, 16:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?$5.00Jun 28, 04:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$5.00Jun 28, 04:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $17.91
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 10:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 16:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.