Bowed-Defender
0x459c1d7ef173fc5dcfc7322a125f9ba79bb7a29b
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$8.32
Total PnL
$-52.80
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?
8 shares @ 97.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$8.32
$0.20
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 28, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?
1500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 15 straight weeks?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 14 straight weeks?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will PVV win 30–32 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?
75 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-10.50
- JAPAN
LoL: Japan vs Team Liquid (BO1)
42 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 8, 2025$0.00
$-2.50
- VIETNAM
LoL: Vietnam vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO1)
32 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on February 10?
20 shares @ 85.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$0.00
$-17.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?$8.12Jun 2, 19:08 UTC
- REDEEMIran leadership change by May 31?$6.29Jun 2, 19:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$10.25Jun 2, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$8.27May 2, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by May 31?$5.79May 2, 13:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 17?$3.83May 2, 13:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$13.14May 2, 13:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 17?$3.78Apr 16, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$12.50Apr 6, 01:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?$12.16Apr 6, 01:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYEdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?$10.50Mar 31, 07:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Houston win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?$3.33Mar 31, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Houston win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?$3.00Mar 25, 05:35 UTC
- REDEEMBackpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?$3.71Mar 25, 05:32 UTC
- REDEEMCalifornia Baptist Lancers vs. Kansas Jayhawks$4.66Mar 25, 05:32 UTC
- REDEEMTCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue Devils$5.05Mar 25, 05:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYTCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue Devils$4.30Mar 20, 09:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYCalifornia Baptist Lancers vs. Kansas Jayhawks$4.20Mar 20, 07:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 43°C or higher on March 17?$4.24Mar 20, 07:07 UTC
- REDEEMBank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2026 meeting?$5.14Mar 20, 07:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $311.96
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 26, 17:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 2, 19:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".