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OtherMulti-outcomeExpires Apr 30, 2026

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Probability

1h

-0.7pp

24h

-15.3pp

24h Vol

$357.5K

Liquidity

$39.3K

Probability (last 7 days)

+4.2pp 7d
Apr 17, 2026, 19:00Apr 24, 2026, 18:11
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Without an Anthropic API key we show a heuristic summary derived from the market metrics.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 125.8h

    LOW
  • 18:11Signal

    Signal · Clustered NO flow

    25 trades ($5,882) aligned on NO across 22 wallets in the last 30 min.

    HIGH
  • 18:11Signal

    Signal · Momentum down

    Probability moved down 15.3pp in 24h with 9.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH
  • 18:11Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 126h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 18:07Trade

    Motionless-Artifact · SELL YES $5.3K

    @ 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -16.9pp

    to 8¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -13.8pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability down -13.2pp

    to 10¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 16¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -9.8pp

    to 10¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability down -10.9pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 10:00Price

    Probability down -10.4pp

    to 8¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -12.5pp

    to 6¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability down -13.1pp

    to 6¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability down -13.0pp

    to 6¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -16.1pp

    to 7¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -20.3pp

    to 8¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -10.5pp

    to 6¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability down -8.0pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 19:00Price

    Probability up 9.4pp

    to 15¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 12.4pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 25.4pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 24.2pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 24.1pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 24.3pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 25.4pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 24.7pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 24.5pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 25.7pp

    to 29¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 25.5pp

    to 29¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

25
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Apr 30, 2026
Resolution source
UMA status
n/a
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the market rules.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).