Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Probability
8¢
1h
-0.7pp
24h
-15.3pp
24h Vol
$357.5K
Liquidity
$39.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
+4.2pp 7dWhy did it move?
Without an Anthropic API key we show a heuristic summary derived from the market metrics.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 125.8h
- 18:11SignalHIGH
Signal · Clustered NO flow
25 trades ($5,882) aligned on NO across 22 wallets in the last 30 min.
- 18:11SignalHIGH
Signal · Momentum down
Probability moved down 15.3pp in 24h with 9.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 18:11SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 126h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 18:07TradeMEDIUM
Motionless-Artifact · SELL YES $5.3K
@ 88¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.9pp
to 8¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.8pp
to 9¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.2pp
to 10¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 16¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.8pp
to 10¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.9pp
to 9¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.4pp
to 8¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 6¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.1pp
to 6¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 6¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.1pp
to 7¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.3pp
to 8¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 6¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 9¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.4pp
to 15¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.4pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.4pp
to 30¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.2pp
to 30¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.1pp
to 30¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.3pp
to 31¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.4pp
to 31¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.7pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.5pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.7pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.5pp
to 29¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
25- SELLUP4m ago
- BUYNATUS VINCERE4m ago
- BUYDOWN4m ago
- BUYDOWN4m ago
- BUYDOWN4m ago
- SELLYES4m ago
- BUYYES4m ago
- BUYDOWN4m ago
- BUYDOWN4m ago
- BUYDOWN4m ago
- BUYNATUS VINCERE4m ago
- BUYYES4m ago
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- Resolution source
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- No primary resolution source listed — read the market rules.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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