Jaded-Harp
0x45aa4f27eac590c0ab4e118238911ad0cdc20d76
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$9.19
Total PnL
$-6.97
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
2 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$2.10
$0.01
- NO
KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30?
1 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.15
$0.00
- NO
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.12
$0.00
- NO
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.09
$0.00
- NO
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
1 shares @ 97.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.06
$0.03
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
1 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.04
$0.00
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2 shares @ 55.0¢·now 40.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.91
$-0.32
- NO
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $3.00-$4.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 6 – Jul 10?
1 shares @ 98.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.72
$-0.30
- NO
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season?
6 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 29, 2024$0.00
$-2.05
- NO
Will Bill Ackman say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the X Space event on November 18?
3 shares @ 64.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 18, 2025$0.00
$-1.78
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Opendoor (OPEN) close at $3.00-$4.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 6 – Jul 10?$1.02Jul 5, 07:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?$1.09Jul 1, 21:53 UTC
- REDEEMZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?$1.15Jul 1, 06:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?$1.15Jun 28, 08:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?$1.09Jun 28, 08:27 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?$1.21Jun 23, 15:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14?$1.06Jun 15, 06:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?$1.21Jun 13, 08:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14?$1.06Jun 13, 08:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$2.09May 30, 01:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 8?$1.09May 9, 02:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYCrude Oil all time high by April 30?$1.12Apr 30, 03:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYKRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30?$1.15Apr 29, 08:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$1.04Apr 29, 00:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Vance visit the Middle East by March 31?$1.09Apr 14, 08:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?$1.32Apr 14, 08:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill France join the Board of Peace?$1.34Apr 14, 08:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$1.03Apr 14, 08:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vance visit the Middle East by March 31?$1.06Mar 30, 02:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France join the Board of Peace?$1.34Mar 29, 07:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $4.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 4, 09:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 07:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.