Improbable-Sonar
0x45accedd331e75b16dda012189129a33d6b9d2bb
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
4
Open notional
$384.99
Total PnL
$-464.93
Realised
$-130.00
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Barrett Pfeiffer win Big Brother season 28?
1693 shares @ 11.0¢·now 7.3¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$123.55
$-62.62
- NO
Will Daniel Vilela win the Governor of Goiás election?
1583 shares @ 12.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$102.92
$-87.08
- NO
Will Ricardo Samaniego win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election?
1923 shares @ 13.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$86.54
$-163.46
- YES
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?
670 shares @ 14.0¢·now 10.8¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$71.99
$-21.76
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?$0.48Aug 12, 05:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?$0.50Aug 12, 05:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?$228.82Aug 12, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?$250.00Aug 12, 04:45 UTC
- REWARD$69.19Aug 12, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill two people dissent the December Fed decision?$1.38Aug 11, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill two people dissent the December Fed decision?$1.44Aug 11, 17:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?$4.29Aug 11, 12:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?$2.24Aug 11, 12:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$3.08Aug 11, 12:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?$4.45Aug 11, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$3.48Aug 11, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?$2.90Aug 11, 11:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$0.09Aug 11, 10:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$0.10Aug 11, 10:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?$8.73Aug 11, 09:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?$3.88Aug 11, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$3.50Aug 11, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?$9.64Aug 11, 07:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?$4.01Aug 11, 07:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
13/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $45.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 8, 13:48 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 12, 05:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.