Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?
Probability
19¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$2.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
+7.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 7400h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $2.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 7400.2h
- 15:49SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 7400h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 16¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 16¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 16¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. This market will resolve according to the film which is nominated for the greatest number of Oscars at the 99th Academy Awards, currently expected to take place in March of 2027. A film will be considered to be nominated for an award if it or members of its crew, cast, or production are nominated for an award for work related to that film. In the event of a tie for the greatest number of nominations, this market will resolve in favor of the film whose title comes first in alphabetical order. If for any reason no nominations are announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Feb 28, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).