Medium-Handful
0x45b18775938789144046be85072693c9c622fa5f
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
84
Open notional
$0.02
Total PnL
$-293.29
Realised
$13.40
Win rate
57%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 84- YES
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
13 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.02
$-0.06
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Military action against Iran ends by April 28, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Military action against Iran ends by April 25, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Military action against Iran ends by April 27, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Military action against Iran ends by April 20, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Military action against Iran ends by April 23, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Military action against Iran ends by April 21, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Military action against Iran ends by April 26, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Military action against Iran ends by April 24, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?$47.65Apr 22, 01:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?$1.00Apr 20, 23:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the number of US flights delayed on April 6 be between 6,500 and 7,000?$36.58Apr 20, 23:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?$12.26Apr 19, 20:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 19?$9.73Apr 19, 16:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 18?$1.00Apr 18, 22:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?$37.20Apr 18, 22:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 19?$1.01Apr 18, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 19?$1.00Apr 18, 20:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 19?$6.50Apr 18, 20:02 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$7.88Apr 18, 19:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$5.00Apr 18, 19:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on April 18?$11.65Apr 18, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on April 18?$5.00Apr 18, 17:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on April 18?$2.46Apr 18, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on April 18?$5.00Apr 18, 10:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on April 18?$5.00Apr 18, 10:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?$6.57Apr 18, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 18?$0.61Apr 18, 01:24 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET$0.01Apr 18, 00:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
57% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 73/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $9.44
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 15, 18:21 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 22, 01:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.