Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+50.3pp
24h Vol
$553.1K
Liquidity
$303.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
+94.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Without an Anthropic API key we show a heuristic summary derived from the market metrics.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 18:12SignalHIGH
Signal · Clustered NO flow
25 trades ($5,882) aligned on NO across 22 wallets in the last 30 min.
- 18:12SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 18:07TradeMEDIUM
Motionless-Artifact · SELL YES $5.3K
@ 88¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 74.3pp
to 100¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 72.5pp
to 100¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 71.4pp
to 100¢
- 16:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolved 2h ago
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.9pp
to 40¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.1pp
to 40¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.4pp
to 48¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.0pp
to 46¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.6pp
to 44¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 35.6pp
to 65¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 33.6pp
to 64¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 34.3pp
to 62¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 42.9pp
to 65¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 33.6pp
to 55¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 42.3pp
to 59¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 40.7pp
to 57¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 39.9pp
to 56¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 38.6pp
to 52¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 35.6pp
to 49¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 35.4pp
to 42¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 34.6pp
to 42¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 38.1pp
to 43¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 38.5pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 36.4pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 40.4pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.1pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.6pp
to 30¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
25- SELLUP5m ago
- BUYNATUS VINCERE5m ago
- BUYDOWN5m ago
- BUYDOWN5m ago
- BUYDOWN5m ago
- SELLYES5m ago
- BUYYES5m ago
- BUYDOWN5m ago
- BUYDOWN5m ago
- BUYDOWN5m ago
- BUYNATUS VINCERE5m ago
- BUYYES5m ago
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 17 12:00 PM ET to April 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 24, 2026
- Resolution source
- https://x.com/elonmusk
- UMA status
- proposed
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- UMA status: proposed
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 24, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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