Merry-Frost
0x45e8e30540ca23776a0af4a2f05cb02cb0eb878a
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
130
Open notional
$11.90
Total PnL
$-773.42
Realised
$-57.82
Win rate
0%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 130- YES
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?
50 shares @ 4.0¢·now 3.9¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$1.93
$-0.07
- YES
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?
22 shares @ 9.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$1.67
$-0.33
- YES
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?
17 shares @ 29.4¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.45
$-3.55
- YES
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December?
29 shares @ 17.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.32
$-3.68
- YES
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.94
$-0.06
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
238 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.83
$-4.17
- YES
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.83
$-0.17
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
8 shares @ 39.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.73
$-2.27
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
6 shares @ 17.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.56
$-0.44
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?
9 shares @ 23.5¢·now 3.1¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.27
$-1.73
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?$1.03Jun 18, 16:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?$1.02Jun 18, 16:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$1.88Jun 18, 16:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?$1.03Jun 18, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?$1.03Jun 18, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Qatar win on 2026-06-18?$1.03Jun 18, 16:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.10Jun 18, 16:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June?$1.80Jun 18, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?$1.03Jun 18, 16:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.96Jun 18, 04:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.96Jun 18, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by June 11?$3.00Jun 11, 00:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by June 12?$10.00Jun 10, 23:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June?$9.89Jun 10, 23:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June?$3.01Jun 10, 23:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?$2.11Jun 7, 22:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$5.00Jun 7, 22:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by June 30?$2.00Jun 7, 22:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by June 15?$5.00Jun 7, 22:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$3.24May 24, 01:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $6.96
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 29, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 16:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.