0x460a2465ceec7e9207077d110736a9464216e696
0x460a2465ceec7e9207077d110736a9464216e696
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$4.9K
Total PnL
$-4.7K
Realised
$-1.3K
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $9,300 (HIGH) in December?
3011 shares @ 92.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.9K
$104.42
- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December?
984 shares @ 83.3¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$890.66
$70.61
- YES
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
1295 shares @ 39.8¢·now 42.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$550.53
$35.11
- NO
Will Texas Longhorns win the 2027 CFP National Championship?
500 shares @ 89.4¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jan 26, 2027$447.50
$0.50
- YES
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?
200 shares @ 50.0¢·now 31.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$62.00
$-38.00
- YES
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?
70 shares @ 26.0¢·now 18.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$12.60
$-5.60
- YES
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?
200 shares @ 13.0¢·now 4.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$8.30
$-17.70
- NO
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
26 shares @ 57.0¢·now 29.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.49
$-7.23
- YES
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?
124 shares @ 8.6¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$6.75
$-3.90
- NO
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?
4200 shares @ 8.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.00
$-342.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December?$161.52Jul 17, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Texas Longhorns win the 2027 CFP National Championship?$81.50Jul 15, 18:39 UTC
- REWARD$1.79Jul 15, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Texas Longhorns win the 2027 CFP National Championship?$98.99Jul 14, 12:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Texas Longhorns win the 2027 CFP National Championship?$8.40Jul 13, 22:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Texas Longhorns win the 2027 CFP National Championship?$258.60Jul 13, 22:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill USA be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?$300.00Jul 7, 04:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June?$0.53Jul 1, 01:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?$0.99Jul 1, 01:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?$0.99Jul 1, 01:47 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.06Jul 1, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December?$404.99Jun 30, 23:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December?$159.06Jun 30, 23:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?$100.00Jun 30, 22:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December?$86.93Jun 29, 19:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?$10.66Jun 24, 01:52 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.20Jun 24, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$2.25Jun 24, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$2.04Jun 23, 22:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $9,300 (HIGH) in December?$1.8KJun 23, 12:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 73/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $171.73
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 18, 04:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 17, 18:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.