Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-43.6K

Realised

$-21.2K

Win rate

198 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET
1089 shares @ 52.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026
$0.00
$-567.86
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET
892 shares @ 44.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026
$0.00
$-400.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
833 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026
$0.00
$-399.61
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET
779 shares @ 38.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026
$0.00
$-302.10
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET
736 shares @ 39.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026
$0.00
$-291.23
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET
663 shares @ 41.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026
$0.00
$-272.77
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET
659 shares @ 41.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026
$0.00
$-271.85
SUNS
Thunder vs. Suns
650 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026
$0.00
$-220.86
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET
612 shares @ 42.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026
$0.00
$-259.77
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
606 shares @ 16.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYFrance leading at halftime?$101.47Jun 16, 17:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET$10.19Jun 16, 16:52 UTC
REDEEMExact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay?$4.18Jun 16, 00:51 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay?$3.73Jun 16, 00:01 UTC
TRADESELLWill Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?$3.48Jun 16, 00:00 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?$100.06Jun 15, 23:40 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$394.00May 27, 20:55 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$206.89May 27, 20:49 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$9.37May 27, 20:49 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$208.54May 27, 20:45 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$37.53May 27, 20:44 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$415.72May 27, 20:42 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$10.14May 27, 20:27 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$0.00May 27, 20:25 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$851.06May 27, 20:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$414.84May 27, 20:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$415.44May 27, 20:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$178.00May 27, 20:10 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$33.26May 27, 20:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$207.81May 27, 20:05 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

64/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 198 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

198 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry89 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk36 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 41
Avg trade size: $90.51
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 26, 23:53 UTC
Last active: Jun 16, 17:02 UTC
Win rate sample: 198 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 17:38:44 UTC·src:Polymarket Data