Vigilant-Parrot
0x4612d9f2720a6f4787704ac0d89764e05105d79b
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
22
Open notional
$2.0K
Total PnL
$-921.89
Realised
$-200.05
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- NO
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
2489 shares @ 26.1¢·now 32.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$809.00
$159.01
- NO
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
510 shares @ 49.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$288.21
$38.21
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1691 shares @ 11.8¢·now 12.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$208.87
$8.87
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?
136 shares @ 73.7¢·now 83.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$112.69
$12.69
- YES
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
200 shares @ 50.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$111.00
$11.00
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the TN-05 House seat?
123 shares @ 81.0¢·now 83.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$102.47
$2.47
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
175 shares @ 57.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$93.86
$-6.14
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
345 shares @ 29.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$91.38
$-8.62
- NO
Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
426 shares @ 23.4¢·now 13.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$57.56
$-42.44
- NO
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
313 shares @ 16.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$45.31
$-4.69
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.06Jul 30, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 26, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 24, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 21, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 19, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 11, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
2 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $308.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 13, 00:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.