Coarse-Wedding
0x4663854f8bb5a3ea850cbed4b126ab6c13edb80c
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-667.17
Realised
$19.82
Win rate
93%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
3035 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-33.00
- YES
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?
2500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET
1030 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-13.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 20?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 21?
928 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-0.93
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 15?
928 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$0.00
$-0.93
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET
600 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET
528 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$1.06Jul 27, 21:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$1.06Jul 27, 21:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$1.05Jul 27, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$1.06Jul 27, 20:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$1.06Jul 27, 20:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$1.05Jul 27, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$1.07Jul 27, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$2.11Jul 27, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$2.10Jul 27, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$1.06Jul 27, 20:14 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$4.09Jul 27, 20:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$2.10Jul 27, 20:13 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$0.00Jul 23, 12:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$1.07Jul 23, 12:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$1.06Jul 23, 12:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$1.06Jul 23, 12:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET$1.04Jul 23, 03:32 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$0.00Jul 22, 12:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$1.06Jul 22, 12:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$1.06Jul 22, 12:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
93% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $1.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 08:47 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 21:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.