GeopoliticsExpires May 15, 2026
Creator

Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?

Probability

1¢

1h

+0.1pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$286.5K

Liquidity

$382.0K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED NO

Reason

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 15, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source

Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.

Market type
Binary
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
  • Market expires May 15, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
1¢
May 12, 2026, 17:00May 13, 2026, 03:57
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-13T04-00Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 44h. No explicit resolution source listed.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 44 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 44.0h

    HIGH
  • 04:00Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 44h. No explicit resolution source listed.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Geopolitics

Market Description

Donald Trump is scheduled to visit China for a summit with Xi Jinping around May 14-15, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump and Xi Jinping kiss at any point during this summit. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Video or photographic evidence of the kiss must be released within this market’s time frame to qualify. A qualifying kiss is defined as an in-person greeting or gesture involving the lips of one individual touching another individual. A qualifying kiss need not be reciprocal; a kiss on the cheek or hand from either party will qualify. The summit begins when Donald Trump enters the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. The summit ends once Donald Trump physically departs from Chinese territory. This market may resolve once Donald Trump physically departs from Chinese territory at the end of the summit. If Donald Trump does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of China by May 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source will be based on photographic/video footage.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Geopolitics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

summit

Reason

Question text contains "summit" — matched the Geopolitics keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?"?

As of Wed, 13 May 2026 04:00:58 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.1pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 15, 2026 (2026-05-15T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$286.5K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $286.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $382.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket