Essential-Fill
0x46884bbba8bce625d4d342933424738aec5b59d7
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
66
Open notional
$18.74
Total PnL
$-76.10
Realised
$-0.11
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 66- NO
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
1 shares @ 78.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$1.16
$0.14
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?
13 shares @ 7.9¢·now 8.3¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.07
$0.05
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 23?
1 shares @ 98.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$1.03
$0.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 24?
2 shares @ 60.0¢·now 60.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$1.02
$0.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 24?
1 shares @ 97.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$1.01
$-0.01
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
1 shares @ 98.6¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$1.01
$0.00
- NO
Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be at least 58 million?
1 shares @ 98.4¢·now 97.3¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$1.01
$-0.01
- YES
Will UMF Stjarnan win on 2026-07-23?
3 shares @ 35.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$1.01
$-0.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 24?
1 shares @ 99.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$1.00
$-0.01
- VITALITY
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier
1 shares @ 94.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$1.00
$-0.02
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be at least 58 million?$1.02Jul 23, 06:13 UTC
- REDEEMJakob Marsee: Home Runs O/U 0.5$1.02Jul 23, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$1.01Jul 23, 04:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$1.03Jul 23, 04:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$1.04Jul 23, 04:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$1.03Jul 23, 04:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 24?$1.03Jul 23, 04:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 24?$1.04Jul 23, 04:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 24?$1.01Jul 23, 04:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 24?$1.02Jul 23, 04:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 23?$1.03Jul 23, 04:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 23?$1.02Jul 23, 04:19 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Austin FC (-1.5)$7.85Jul 23, 03:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Diego FC end in a draw?$1.03Jul 23, 03:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$1.02Jul 23, 03:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 23?$1.01Jul 23, 03:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 24?$1.05Jul 23, 03:21 UTC
- TRADESELLSan Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5$2.68Jul 23, 03:21 UTC
- TRADESELLDetroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs$3.09Jul 23, 03:11 UTC
- REDEEMChicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers$0.00Jul 23, 03:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $1.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 01:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 06:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.