Zany-Champagne
0x46b19b4cbf00e4e5ce9fdc45f1f9a5c003fc428c
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
147
Open notional
$268.51
Total PnL
$-873.81
Realised
$-10.25
Win rate
27%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 147- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
52 shares @ 96.0¢·now 95.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$49.82
$-0.18
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?
48 shares @ 97.8¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$47.23
$0.70
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
20 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$19.93
$-0.07
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
27 shares @ 69.1¢·now 71.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.66
$0.66
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
14 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$13.99
$-0.01
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?
13 shares @ 96.9¢·now 98.6¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$13.09
$0.22
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
13 shares @ 98.7¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$13.04
$0.04
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?
12 shares @ 97.6¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$12.05
$0.05
- YES
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
11 shares @ 98.5¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$11.04
$0.04
- NO
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
7 shares @ 87.5¢·now 87.4¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$5.99
$-0.01
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?$1.00Jun 19, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?$1.00Jun 19, 06:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?$1.00Jun 19, 06:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$1.01Jun 19, 06:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?$1.00Jun 19, 05:36 UTC
- TRADESELLDota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner$0.50Jun 19, 05:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYDota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner$1.00Jun 19, 05:35 UTC
- REDEEMJulián Quiñones: 1+ shots$2.02Jun 19, 05:24 UTC
- REDEEMJulián Quiñones: 1+ shots on target$1.01Jun 19, 05:24 UTC
- REDEEMRoberto Alvarado: 1+ shots$2.02Jun 19, 05:20 UTC
- REDEEMRaúl Jiménez: 1+ shots$1.01Jun 19, 05:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$1.01Jun 19, 04:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?$1.00Jun 19, 04:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$1.00Jun 19, 04:00 UTC
- TRADESELLDota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner$0.50Jun 19, 03:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYDota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner$1.00Jun 19, 03:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?$0.03Jun 19, 03:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?$1.00Jun 19, 03:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?$1.00Jun 19, 03:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?$1.00Jun 19, 03:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
27% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $1.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 02:47 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 19, 06:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.