Zany-Champagne
0x46b19b4cbf00e4e5ce9fdc45f1f9a5c003fc428c
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$248.27
Total PnL
$-4.5K
Realised
$-8.37
Win rate
25%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?
35 shares @ 85.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$31.76
$1.76
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?
33 shares @ 90.9¢·now 95.4¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$31.49
$1.49
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in August?
34 shares @ 89.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$31.18
$1.18
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August?
31 shares @ 96.0¢·now 94.3¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$29.45
$-0.55
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August?
33 shares @ 88.2¢·now 87.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$29.28
$-0.24
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?
39 shares @ 75.7¢·now 72.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$28.10
$-1.45
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?
21 shares @ 94.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$20.11
$0.11
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?
21 shares @ 57.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Jan 27, 2027$12.95
$0.95
- NO
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
18 shares @ 42.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$7.47
$-0.09
- YES
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
21 shares @ 37.3¢·now 32.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.98
$-1.03
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?$0.70Aug 3, 18:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Shit" in August?$2.09Aug 3, 18:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?$3.43Aug 3, 18:19 UTC
- TRADESELLFed emergency rate cut before 2027?$2.85Aug 3, 18:19 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump out as President by August 31?$3.00Aug 3, 18:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?$12.30Aug 3, 18:19 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?$3.07Aug 3, 18:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$2.80Aug 3, 18:19 UTC
- REDEEMDota 2: PuckChamp vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner$0.36Aug 3, 16:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX (SPCX) finish week of June 29 above $185?$0.86Aug 3, 16:48 UTC
- REDEEMMichelsen vs. Gea: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5$9.80Aug 3, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?$3.00Aug 3, 16:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?$1.13Aug 3, 16:26 UTC
- TRADESELLSpread: Zalaegerszeg TE (-1.5)$4.48Aug 3, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYFC Universitatea Cluj vs. FC Botoşani: O/U 2.5$1.06Aug 3, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYFC Universitatea Cluj vs. FC Botoşani: O/U 2.5$1.08Aug 3, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Paksi FC (-1.5)$1.87Aug 3, 16:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Zalaegerszeg TE (-1.5)$2.23Aug 3, 16:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Paksi FC (-1.5)$1.19Aug 3, 16:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?$3.00Aug 3, 16:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $5.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 2, 00:22 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 3, 18:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.