Clear-Cut-Pie
0x470e7377abfd15f5a9c991b1b047e2d47f7c78c9
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$5.32
Total PnL
$-5.83
Realised
$-0.04
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will General Mills (GIS) beat quarterly earnings?
1 shares @ 90.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$1.11
$0.11
- NO
Trump out as President by June 30?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.08
$0.00
- NO
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.06
$0.00
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.05
$0.00
- NO
100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by June 30?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.01
$0.00
- YES
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model on October 31?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-0.60
- YES
Will Palantir Technologies (PLTR) be the best performing company in the Nasdaq 100 during 2025?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-0.58
- NO
Will Paramount Skydance (PSKY) beat quarterly earnings?
1 shares @ 94.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.07
- YES
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 80m?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 22, 2025$0.00
$-0.56
- YES
Will China GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.54
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or below on June 24?$1.01Jun 30, 03:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 23?$1.13Jun 30, 03:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?$1.30Jun 30, 03:28 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump out as President by June 30?$2.92Jun 23, 09:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President by June 30?$4.00Jun 23, 09:07 UTC
- TRADESELL100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by June 30?$2.97Jun 23, 09:07 UTC
- TRADEBUY100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by June 30?$4.00Jun 23, 09:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?$1.01Jun 23, 09:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?$6.14Jun 23, 09:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?$7.20Jun 23, 09:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day?$7.23Jun 23, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day?$8.30Jun 23, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill General Mills (GIS) beat quarterly earnings?$1.00Jun 23, 09:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 23?$4.36Jun 23, 09:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or below on June 24?$4.97Jun 23, 09:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 23?$5.50Jun 23, 09:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or below on June 24?$6.00Jun 23, 08:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 8, 2026?$1.11May 11, 16:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on May 3?$1.01May 7, 04:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 2?$1.02May 7, 04:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $5.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 26, 05:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 30, 03:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.