Likable-Island
0x471c5031eb940472718c6f9a4af73472576e9e94
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
56
Open notional
$196.03
Total PnL
$-5.3K
Realised
$156.73
Win rate
100%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 56- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
66 shares @ 80.3¢·now 73.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$48.51
$-4.52
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?
21 shares @ 74.7¢·now 95.7¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$20.09
$4.40
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?
21 shares @ 93.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$19.64
$0.10
- NO
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
31 shares @ 63.5¢·now 61.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.06
$-0.62
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?
20 shares @ 85.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$17.30
$0.30
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
17 shares @ 84.7¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$14.06
$-0.74
- NO
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?
15 shares @ 72.7¢·now 89.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$13.43
$2.52
- NO
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in July?
10 shares @ 87.0¢·now 98.4¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$9.84
$1.14
- NO
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in July?
9 shares @ 69.9¢·now 94.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$8.93
$2.33
- NO
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
16 shares @ 46.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$6.96
$-0.40
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$19.53Jul 22, 05:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?$19.53Jul 22, 05:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$1.90Jul 19, 05:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. England: Team to Win$10.16Jul 18, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYSwiss Open: Alexander Bublik vs Quentin Halys$1.03Jul 17, 11:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$3.00Jul 17, 10:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYSwiss Open: Alexander Bublik vs Quentin Halys$7.46Jul 16, 21:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$7.28Jul 16, 19:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in July?$5.02Jul 16, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?$7.28Jul 16, 05:47 UTC
- REDEEMEngland vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5$29.00Jul 15, 21:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$13.37Jul 15, 16:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYEngland vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5$4.80Jul 15, 16:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.96Jul 15, 07:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$3.00Jul 15, 07:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$3.64Jul 15, 07:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?$3.74Jul 15, 07:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$4.34Jul 14, 21:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYEngland vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5$15.20Jul 14, 21:06 UTC
- TRADESELLFrance vs. Spain: Team to Advance$16.44Jul 14, 21:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $10.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 23:53 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 05:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.