Measly-Mango
0x472fb4e2e2bdc785b744a1e780b5af7409504b75
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
46
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$-39.05
Win rate
57%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 46- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 23?
1000 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-70.00
- YES
Israeli forces enter Beirut by March 31, 2026?
320 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-9.92
- YES
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?
317 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-6.50
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3PM ET
300 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-33.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 20?
258 shares @ 19.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-50.19
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
200 shares @ 41.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-82.98
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET
190 shares @ 9.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-17.90
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 22?
170 shares @ 53.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-90.40
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1PM ET
153 shares @ 16.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-25.76
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 22?
153 shares @ 10.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-16.75
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$0.00Mar 22, 09:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsraeli forces enter Beirut by March 31, 2026?$9.92Mar 22, 02:15 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.20Mar 22, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET$2.00Mar 21, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET$0.55Mar 21, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET$28.86Mar 21, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET$8.58Mar 21, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET$14.00Mar 21, 20:47 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$48.75Mar 21, 20:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$0.00Mar 21, 20:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$0.00Mar 21, 20:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$0.00Mar 21, 20:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET$0.00Mar 21, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4PM ET$4.00Mar 21, 20:45 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4PM ET$5.40Mar 21, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4PM ET$3.30Mar 21, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$4.36Mar 21, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$9.99Mar 21, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$6.15Mar 21, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$21.50Mar 21, 20:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
57% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $14.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 21, 20:11 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 22, 09:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.