Experienced-Surface
0x475c1136615ff1b0c25616a6fd379e98962297f5
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
74
Open notional
$769.81
Total PnL
$-459.17
Realised
$27.61
Win rate
9%
67 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 74- YES
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
1045 shares @ 28.2¢·now 41.5¢·exp Oct 27, 2026$433.85
$138.85
- YES
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
253 shares @ 29.7¢·now 53.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$134.10
$59.10
- NO
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
116 shares @ 86.1¢·now 69.5¢·exp Oct 27, 2026$80.74
$-19.26
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
211 shares @ 9.5¢·now 18.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$38.21
$18.21
- NO
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
46 shares @ 79.6¢·now 82.0¢·exp Oct 27, 2026$38.12
$1.12
- YES
Will Portland Trail Blazers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
1818 shares @ 1.1¢·now 1.1¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$19.09
$-0.91
- YES
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
690 shares @ 2.9¢·now 2.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$17.59
$-2.41
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
66 shares @ 15.1¢·now 12.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$8.11
$-1.89
- YES
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1050 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-26.25
- YES
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
992 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-31.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Aug 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 16, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 13, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 12, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel Katz win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?$1.09Aug 11, 04:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 10, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 9, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 8, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 7, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 6, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$15.40Aug 5, 14:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 5, 02:33 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 4, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 3, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 2, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 1, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
9% win rate over 67 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
17 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
67 closed markets, 9% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 17
- Avg trade size
- $16.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 21:10 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 67 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.