PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Dec 31, 2026
Creator

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Probability

32¢

1h

+0.4pp

24h

+3.8pp

24h Vol

$8.3K

Liquidity

$64.7K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official government information
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+4.2pp 7d
1007550250
32¢
Jun 7, 2026, 10:00 UTCJun 14, 2026, 09:43 UTC
updated 09:44:05 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-14T09-44Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 4pp over 24h

    Now 32¢; +0.4pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Light volume — move on a thin book

    Only $8.3k traded against $64.7k of visible liquidity (0.13× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Momentum observation firing

    Probability moved up 3.8pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum observations historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live monitoring
Trust transition

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: Official government information

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 4790.3h

    LOW
  • 09:44Signal

    Momentum up

    Probability moved up 3.8pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

+3.8pp over the last 24h, now 32¢.

Biggest hourly move: +8.5pp at 05:00 (to 36¢).

Show 3 hourly moves
  • 09:00 · +4.1pp → 31¢
  • 07:00 · +4.7pp → 33¢
  • 05:00 · +8.5pp → 36¢
updated 09:44:05 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 09:44:05 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWho will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Category · Politics

Market Description

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

parliamentary election

Reason

Parliamentary election markets are Politics.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?"?

As of Sun, 14 Jun 2026 09:44:05 GMT, YES is priced at 32% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +3.8pp in the last 24 hours, +0.4pp in the last hour, and +4.2pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$8.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $973.9K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $64.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket