Fair-Record
0x477a7d28ed844984088129207c0afcb2459e2d8e
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
199
Open notional
$5.0K
Total PnL
$-115.4K
Realised
$-3.6K
Win rate
68%
60 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 199- NO
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
3314 shares @ 28.7¢·now 31.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$1.0K
$93.57
- NO
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
739 shares @ 74.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$590.84
$44.31
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
2123 shares @ 35.4¢·now 27.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$583.88
$-167.14
- YES
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
1500 shares @ 33.1¢·now 24.6¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$368.25
$-128.25
- NO
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
500 shares @ 63.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$302.50
$-12.50
- YES
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
797 shares @ 31.0¢·now 34.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$277.44
$30.22
- NO
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
400 shares @ 65.1¢·now 69.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$276.39
$15.81
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1000 shares @ 24.0¢·now 20.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$200.49
$-39.50
- NO
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?
303 shares @ 65.0¢·now 63.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$193.62
$-3.33
- NO
Fed rate hike in 2026?
815 shares @ 39.9¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$191.52
$-133.67
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?$713.54Jul 28, 21:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$492.86Jul 28, 21:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?$17.35Jul 28, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?$0.65Jul 28, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?$6.99Jul 28, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?$0.01Jul 28, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$251.93Jul 28, 09:47 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.04Jul 28, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$1.95Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?$2.1KJul 27, 23:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?$52.50Jul 27, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?$448.92Jul 27, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?$96.60Jul 27, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?$172.89Jul 27, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?$21.11Jul 27, 18:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?$79.68Jul 27, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?$186.35Jul 27, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?$194.20Jul 27, 13:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 98m?$0.98Jul 27, 13:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
68% win rate over 60 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
60 closed markets, 68% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $236.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 21:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 21:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 60 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.