0x478e2d8b81bfe76395d2fb073f945032ae42a576
0x478e2d8b81bfe76395d2fb073f945032ae42a576
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
159
Open notional
$27.88
Total PnL
$-855.61
Realised
$2.57
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 159- NO
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
19 shares @ 28.0¢·now 62.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$12.02
$6.59
- NO
Will Trump nationalize elections?
11 shares @ 59.5¢·now 81.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.73
$2.31
- AFGHANISTAN
ODI Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka - Who wins the toss?
10 shares @ 90.3¢·now 49.5¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$4.93
$-4.07
- NO
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
1 shares @ 75.0¢·now 96.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.28
$0.28
- YES
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
73 shares @ 21.1¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.69
$-14.66
- YES
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
419 shares @ 13.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.21
$-55.72
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 16?
451 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-4.96
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 16?
377 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 16?
358 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 17?
227 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 18?$12.50May 22, 04:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 18?$7.04May 22, 04:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 18?$5.88May 22, 04:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on May 18?$7.24May 22, 04:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on May 18?$5.88May 22, 04:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 17?$6.41May 21, 16:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 17?$5.74May 21, 16:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 17?$7.04May 21, 16:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 17?$9.43May 21, 13:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on May 17?$5.80May 21, 10:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 17?$54.41May 21, 10:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on May 17?$7.50May 21, 10:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 17?$16.66May 21, 09:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 17?$33.33May 21, 09:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 17?$11.62May 21, 08:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on May 17?$6.66May 21, 08:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 17?$6.00May 21, 08:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 17?$10.41May 21, 08:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on May 17?$15.62May 21, 08:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on May 17?$18.51May 21, 08:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 21:56 UTC
- Last active
- May 22, 04:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.