AIExpires Jun 30, 2026

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Probability

22¢

-0.5pp

24h

-5.5pp

24h Vol

$1.8K

Liquidity

$8.5K

Probability (last 7 days)

-26.5pp 7d

Apr 18, 2026, 13:00Apr 25, 2026, 10:13

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 1573.8h
LOW
10:13Signal
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1574h with open resolution ambiguity.
LOW
08:00Price
Probability down -9.5pp
to 21¢
MEDIUM
06:00Price
Probability down -7.5pp
to 23¢
MEDIUM
05:00Price
Probability down -7.5pp
to 23¢
MEDIUM
03:00Price
Probability down -10.5pp
to 23¢
MEDIUM
02:00Price
Probability down -10.0pp
to 23¢
MEDIUM
00:00Price
Probability down -10.5pp
to 23¢
MEDIUM
22:00Price
Probability down -10.5pp
to 23¢
MEDIUM
20:00Price
Probability down -11.0pp
to 22¢
MEDIUM
18:00Price
Probability down -13.5pp
to 23¢
MEDIUM
17:00Price
Probability down -13.5pp
to 23¢
MEDIUM
16:00Price
Probability down -16.0pp
to 22¢
MEDIUM
14:00Price
Probability down -18.5pp
to 20¢
MEDIUM
13:00Price
Probability down -17.5pp
to 21¢
MEDIUM
12:00Price
Probability down -19.0pp
to 20¢
MEDIUM
11:00Price
Probability down -19.0pp
to 20¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -11.5pp
to 27¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -11.0pp
to 28¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -12.0pp
to 27¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -11.5pp
to 28¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -11.5pp
to 28¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -11.5pp
to 28¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -10.0pp
to 30¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -10.5pp
to 29¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -11.5pp
to 29¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -13.0pp
to 28¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -12.0pp
to 28¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -12.5pp
to 28¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -12.5pp
to 28¢
MEDIUM

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventClaude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

Category · AI

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk

End date: Jun 30, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Not specified in metadata
Market type: Binary

No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).

Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket