0x48799bc372779468d2fd61fc4df65f9479da6999
0x48799bc372779468d2fd61fc4df65f9479da6999
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
17
Open notional
$38.63
Total PnL
$-5.88
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- NO
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
15 shares @ 67.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.05
$2.14
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
3 shares @ 49.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$2.75
$1.27
- YES
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?
5 shares @ 34.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$2.37
$0.71
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
6 shares @ 26.0¢·now 35.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$2.27
$0.61
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
2 shares @ 77.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$2.15
$0.49
- NO
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July?
2 shares @ 75.0¢·now 90.3¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$2.00
$0.34
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
2 shares @ 71.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$1.98
$0.32
- NO
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.25 Week of August 10 2026?
3 shares @ 50.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$1.98
$0.32
- NO
Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?
4 shares @ 46.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$1.86
$0.20
- YES
Grok 4.6 released by August 13, 2026?
2 shares @ 70.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$1.84
$0.18
Recent activity
- REDEEMUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?$2.27Aug 11, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrok 4.6 released by August 13, 2026?$1.68Aug 11, 05:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill China's CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026?$0.00Aug 11, 02:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?$0.00Aug 10, 21:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?$1.72Aug 10, 20:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?$2.37Aug 10, 16:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?$1.66Aug 10, 12:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.25 Week of August 10 2026?$1.69Aug 10, 04:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?$1.68Aug 9, 20:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?$1.71Aug 9, 12:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?$1.68Aug 9, 04:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?$0.00Aug 8, 21:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$1.66Aug 8, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?$1.66Aug 8, 11:36 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?$0.00Aug 8, 03:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?$2.13Aug 8, 03:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?$3.07Aug 8, 03:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?$1.70Aug 8, 01:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?$0.00Aug 7, 17:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?$1.68Aug 7, 17:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $1.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 2, 07:10 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 07:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.