0x491112d0630652b626ad48a6d4e822c31407bbf7
0x491112d0630652b626ad48a6d4e822c31407bbf7
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
155
Open notional
$2.50
Total PnL
$-614.44
Realised
$-3.94
Win rate
17%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 155- YES
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Stripe have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 7?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- NO
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
94000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-94.00
- YES
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
44000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-44.00
- YES
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
9000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June?
7000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June?
6000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 7?$1.08Aug 6, 14:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 6?$3.22Aug 5, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 6?$1.07Aug 5, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 6?$1.07Aug 5, 15:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on August 5?$1.07Aug 4, 22:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 5?$6.48Aug 4, 19:07 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET$3.85Aug 2, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 4?$1.08Aug 2, 15:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET$2.09Aug 2, 15:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET$2.09Aug 2, 15:02 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET$3.92Aug 1, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Stripe have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?$1.05Aug 1, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET$2.09Aug 1, 19:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET$2.09Aug 1, 19:44 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 31, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$4.00Aug 1, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 31, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$2.09Jul 31, 18:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 31, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$2.09Jul 31, 18:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 1?$1.08Jul 31, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 31?$1.08Jul 30, 21:49 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$4.00Jul 30, 08:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $2.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 01:38 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 6, 14:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.