Dizzy-Strand
0x49341db98d00c870dc2925d36a32369cfe376d71
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$4.7K
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$87.05
Win rate
70%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
357 shares @ 84.9¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$333.52
$30.52
- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
344 shares @ 66.8¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$273.50
$43.50
- NO
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?
215 shares @ 83.2¢·now 84.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$180.32
$1.79
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
176 shares @ 85.2¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$166.34
$16.34
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
170 shares @ 74.6¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$150.35
$23.69
- NO
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
163 shares @ 79.7¢·now 75.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$122.55
$-7.67
- NO
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
125 shares @ 87.9¢·now 97.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$121.48
$11.48
- NO
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
145 shares @ 85.8¢·now 82.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$119.08
$-5.52
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 29?
113 shares @ 89.6¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$110.41
$9.41
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
116 shares @ 66.1¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$101.43
$24.83
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 29?$1.00Jul 29, 08:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 29?$101.14Jul 29, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$12.13Jul 29, 07:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$2.15Jul 29, 02:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$2.15Jul 29, 02:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$72.31Jul 29, 02:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on July 29?$11.55Jul 29, 00:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on July 29?$20.14Jul 29, 00:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on July 29?$19.00Jul 29, 00:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on July 29?$4.42Jul 29, 00:35 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 28?$105.21Jul 28, 22:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 28?$300.00Jul 28, 22:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 28?$20.00Jul 28, 22:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYForeign intervention in Gaza by August 31?$7.33Jul 28, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$32.37Jul 28, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$11.13Jul 28, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on July 30?$20.27Jul 28, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on July 30?$9.75Jul 28, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on July 30?$2.78Jul 28, 19:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
70% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $21.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 22:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 08:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.